England’s political landscape went through a seismic shift in last week’s local elections. Support for Reform UK grew sharply, while both Labour and the Conservatives suffered significant losses. The results sent shockwaves through much of the political establishment, raising questions about policy direction for both the main parties. For the Conservatives, the results also triggered existential questions about their party.
Reform’s rise has been attributed to voter frustration with the traditional parties and a desire for new approaches to governance. Nigel Farage’s party won nearly a third (31%) of the vote, according to the BBC’s analysis of the vote share. Any scepticism about Reform becoming a serious opposition force was dispelled. And with doubts growing about the Conservative’s chances of winning the next general election, businesses seeking to engage with an opposition party to put pressure on the Government may consider Reform. With only five MPs however, Reform’s ability to amend specific bills and scrutinise ministers in Parliament is limited.
Labour’s narrow defeat in the Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary by-election was particularly striking. Had just four people voted another way, the narrative around the results could have been quite different. The loss of this seat, once considered a Labour stronghold and the party’s sixteenth safest in the country before last week, underscores Labour’s struggles to connect with its traditional base when challenged by Reform. The by-election result may suggest to some that Labour’s Red Wall success in last year’s general election was a temporary blip rather than a permanent return of these seats to Labour.
Following the results, Labour’s Left, led by former Cabinet minister Louise Haigh, urged the party to rethink cuts to Personal Independence Payments and Winter Fuel Allowance. Some commentators had expected more pressure within from senior figures within Labour for the Government to tac to the right on issues such as immigration, but so far that has remained internalised.
Labour’s leadership is taking a balanced approach, determined to avoid overreacting in any direction. The message is to remain calm with no kneejerk policy reactions. Yet we’ll have to see how long that lasts. Number 10 is understood to be relaxed about the response from most in the Parliamentary Labour Party, although there are some serious tensions behind the scenes. Much of the criticism directed at the leadership over the weekend has focused on economic strategy, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves being blamed. With the Treasury’s Spending Review set to be published on June 11th, there may be further anonymous briefings against Reeves and calls for loosening fiscal constraints.
Beyond Number 10 and Whitehall, the by-election loss also raises questions for the Labour campaign machine. Losing by six votes when turnout was 10,000 down on the general election will be seen as a failure of the campaign team with some internal questions asked of Labour HQ, particularly with the Prime Minister not campaigning in the seat.
The Conservatives are in a bad way, losing over 650 council seats across the country. In Kent, they lost 57 out of the 63 they held seats to Reform. This puts beyond doubt that the Conservative Party is in an existential crisis. There is no longer any such thing as a natural Tory area with a natural Tory voter. It is surprising then, that we have seen relatively little chatter over the weekend about the leadership of Kemi Badenoch. The prevailing view within the Conservatives is that there’s no sense of an imminent leadership contest as the challenge the Tories are facing is about more than just leadership. Instead, party figures believe that the Conservatives’ failures are also about party policy and the party’s place in Britain.
The Lib Dems picked up three councils and won just 163 more seats. Whilst they were able to take seats off the Tories, they were largely muscled out of the way in areas won by Reform. However, aside from Labour and the Tories, the Party that will be most disappointed is likely to be the Greens. They failed to win the West of England Mayoralty despite their successes at the general election results and are perhaps seeing the pro-Net Zero agenda watered down by the Government in the face of the challenge from Reform. On top of that, the co-leaders now face a challenge from Deputy Leader Zack Polansky, who pledges to make the party less timid and embrace “eco-populism”.
Ultimately, Labour will take comfort from what they see as the big poll win of last week, that of the Australian Labor Party in the general election down under. They won with a leader seen as decent but unflashy and with fragile economic growth that voters were unwilling to see put at risk. Comfort indeed.
