This Thursday’s local elections will see around 1,650 council seats contested across 14 county councils and eight unitary authorities in England. Voters will also elect six mayors, including at inaugural mayoral contests in Greater Lincolnshire and in Hull and East Yorkshire.
Most of these council seats were last contested in 2021, when polls postponed due to the Covid pandemic were belatedly held. The enforced delay contributed to an unusual political environment, with a so-called “vaccine bounce” boosting Boris Johnson’s Conservatives. Politics has shifted dramatically since then, with new party leaders in place and the public’s priorities evolving.
Local issues will be at the forefront in these elections, with many councils facing challenges that directly impact on voters’ lives. One of the most pressing concerns is the reclassification of Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) spending, which has been blamed for pushing several councils towards bankruptcy and pressing them into cutting services.
These challenges are particularly evident in Birmingham where the ongoing bin strikes have become a major point of contention and a weakness for Labour. The strikes, which began in January and escalated to indefinite action in March, have resulted in uncollected waste piling up on the streets.
Industrial action has not only led to public health concerns but also damaged Labour’s reputation for managing local councils effectively. The dispute, over the removal of the waste recycling and collection officer role, has highlighted the challenges Labour faces in balancing budget cuts with maintaining public services. Additionally, issues such as the cost-of-living crisis, housing shortages, the quality of public services and local infrastructure projects are, as ever, critical to voters.
A rise in support for Reform UK is another significant development affecting the political landscape. Under Nigel Farage’s leadership, the party has gained substantial support, particularly from disillusioned Conservative voters. Recent polls show Reform UK running neck-and-neck with Labour, while the Conservatives trail behind. This shift has put pressure on the Conservatives to announce new policies to address those who feel let down by the Government’s handling of key issues such as the economy and public services. The impact of Reform UK’s rise will be closely watched in the local elections, as it could signal a broader realignment.
The election results will provide an early indication of how the electorate is responding to the new political landscape. The outcomes could influence national politics, leading to possible front-bench reshuffles for the main parties and shifting the direction of policy. Analysts and the public alike will be watching closely to see how the polls unfold and to assess what they might signpost for the future.
