The Government has at last published the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) that ministers commissioned nearly a year ago. It is understandable that Lord Robertson and his review team took their time over the document. Ongoing war in Ukraine, rising tensions in the Middle East and the election of US President Donald Trump have altered the global context and challenged many of the assumptions that existed when the review was launched.
The amount of money earmarked for defence spending has also changed. In February, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer committed the Government to increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and set an ‘ambition’ for this to rise to 3% by the end of the next Parliament. This revised target has enabled the review to recommend a stronger and more capable defence posture across multiple fronts.
An increase in the size the Navy’s attack submarine fleet to 12 vessels for the first time in over two decades was perhaps the most notable commitment in the SDR. Further pledges to invest in munitions production capacity, new autonomous technologies and explore an expansion of the nuclear deterrent are all signs that the Government has learnt from the conflict in Ukraine and is intent on confronting the threat from Russia.
The discourse over how iron-clad the Government’s 3% ambition is has partially overshadowed the SDR’s announcement. Reaching 3% is estimated to cost more than the savings made through the Government’s recent overseas aid cut, welfare reforms and civil service reductions combined. Given these measures have generated significant controversy, it puts into perspective just how politically challenging the decisions the Prime Minister would have to take to reach 3% of GDP are. There are no pain-free options.
The Government’s timeline risks coming under further pressure at a crunch NATO summit later this month, which may see a new NATO baseline of 3.5% agreed.
The SDR has provided welcome clarity on what a ‘NATO-first’ defence policy means in practice. A prioritisation of maritime and air power as our greatest contribution to NATO, combined with a refocusing of resources on our core responsibilities in the Euro-Atlantic and High North.The SDR says the international security landscape is more volatile than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Global threats are rising and becoming more sophisticated, partly due to increasing coordination between Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang.
This instability requires radical change. British society needs to adapt to the new security era, not just defence. With hybrid warfare threats growing, all parts of society must be geared towards security and resilience. Greater vigilance to cyber threats, protection for critical infrastructure and encouragement of more private investment in defence are seen as essential.
Future warfare will extend beyond land, sea and air. Cyber and space are critical domains for modern warfare, with state-backed cyber-attacks threatening the economy and daily life in the UK. To combat these growing threats, a new Cyber and Electromagnetic Command will be established.
The SDR also recommends that the Government considers expanding its contribution to NATO nuclear deterrence. This is not only a sign of how much the threat picture has changed in recent years, but also of how the Labour Party has changed under the leadership of Starmer and his defence secretary John Healey.
A bigger defence industry is seen in the SDR not only as vital for readiness and resilience but also as an economic objective. Defence manufacturing supports high-skilled, well-paid jobs and can be a catalyst for technological innovation. The Ministry of Defence is now firmly positioned as a growth department.
Ultimately, the SDR points towards a transformation in mindset and culture across government. As the modern state was built in the era of the peace dividend, we must now rewire all aspects of government to meet a new era of global instability. Attention now turns to delivery and implementation.
The Arden Defence and Security Practice is on hand to support you to interpret and respond to important developments set out by the SDR.
