Can you come Second and still come First?
Is it ever the case that you lose an election but still secure the highest office? The short answer to that is yes.
In Spain the Socialists came second in the 2023 general election, but their party leader Pedro Sanchez is Spain’s Prime Minister today.
And that argument is now raging in Scotland. In the past few days, the Scottish Parliament election has been dominated by what will happen after the election. In short, can Scottish Labour come second to the SNP and still form the next Scottish government?
For that to happen the SNP would have to fail to secure a majority, and all the other parties – including the Greens and Reform – would have to be open to making Anas Sarwar First Minister. That feels complicated, not least because of the mutual antipathy between Scottish Labour and Reform.
Based on current polling, the most likely outcome remains an arrangement between the SNP and Greens.
But Scotland has already widely embraced an approach of ‘the second party coming first’.
There are multiple Scottish councils where Labour is in charge despite coming second in the 2022 council elections.
Scottish Labour run nine Scottish councils despite only being the largest party in three. These councils’ decisions are no less legitimate because the largest party doesn’t lead them.
In Edinburgh, Labour holds a sixth of the seats but governs Scotland’s capital, and they lead in Fife despite having just a fifth of the councillors. Each of the other parties were unwilling to be led by the SNP and opted for Labour instead.
The Scottish Parliament was designed with a coalition ethos at its heart, including the electoral system and shape of its chamber, so coalitions are more common.
And across Europe electoral systems create complicated outcomes.
Sanchez succeeded because he and his party were a more attractive option for a collection of smaller parties than the Conservatives who came first in that election. No-one now seriously questions Sanchez’s ability to govern. This may not be an option open to Sarwar because an arrangement between Labour and Reform feels like a non-starter.
But there are many other examples across Europe where the party that came second subsequently formed the government, including Belgium in 2019.
Some electoral systems force parties to work together. There will be those who suggest that such an arrangement is anti-democratic, Spain disproves that assertion.
And if we need any further evidence, we need look no further than the undoubted success of Scotland’s capital city where the streets are swept and children are educated in a city where the Council is led by a party with just a fifth of the councillors.
