History tells us that the race for the White House is rarely a clear cut one for the Democrats. Whether brutal, controversial, unforgiving or unprecedented, the likes of Al Gore, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton and now Joe Biden can testify to all of the above.
That the political discourse has been focused on and resulted in the demise of an incumbent first-term President’s candidacy, merely a few months before votes are cast in the presidential election, underlines the mercurial and unpredictable nature of US politics.
The questions of if President Biden has the capacity to still be the Democratic candidate at the Presidential election and whether he should announce his withdrawal, has dominated the thinking of the commentariat, officials, delegates, strategists, former politicians and incumbent jittery Democrat congressional lawmakers worried about their own election campaigns. However, the politics of an aftermath, vis-a-vis the ‘what this will achieve?’, the ‘what comes next?’ and ‘how and will this help secure an election victory?’ evidenced by the sheer uncertainty, has seemingly turned into an afterthought rather than a political forethought.
The key questions are therefore, what are the political dilemmas, likely posed by Democrats as well as Republicans, that Democratic National Committee strategists may face resulting from a messy President Biden departure? What will be their strategy for response, and which is their path of least resistance?
Republicans
Naturally, the GOP will claim President Biden’s withdrawal as a vindication of Trump’s judgement and narrative about the capacity of the President. Trump’s campaign will undoubtedly seek to use a decision to stand aside to inflict maximum damage on the Biden administration’s track record over the last three and half years, linking every decision made as a consequence of President Biden’s capacity.
Secondly, the GOP is already seeking to capitalise on the turbulence within the Democratic Party, with one Trump adviser, Chris LaCivita describing it as “nothing more than an attempted coup by the Democrat[ic] Party.” ‘Chaos’ will be the buzzword on the lips of GOP politicians, posing the fundamental question to voters ‘given everything that is happening, how can the Democrats be trusted to run the greatest country in the world?’.
Thirdly, given that President Biden has bowed to pressure and withdrawn his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election, the separate question of whether Biden should immediately resign as President will inevitably be asked. Whilst Biden is withdrawing from the 2024 presidential race he has indicated his intention to see out his presidential term. Pressure could also build on Democrats to force Biden to step down as President and could play an important role in the political landscape between now and November.
As Trump will argue, if Democrats do not believe President Biden was capable of being the Democratic nominee, then why should the country be satisfied that he remain as Commander-in-Chief? The 25th Amendment remains a constitutional provision that allows for the suspension of presidential power and the installation of a temporary replacement. Section 4 allows for the Vice President with a majority of the Cabinet to declare the President unable to perform their duties and thus installing the Vice President as Acting President. This can be vetoed by the President, declaring no such inability exists but this veto can subsequently be overturned with a two-thirds majority in Congress. Therefore, the bar for such an eventuality is high and would constitute a nuclear political option.
But a situation could emerge, were Biden to resist calls to resign as President, whereby the Cabinet and subsequently Democrats in Congress have to weigh up whether they should absorb Republican political pressure from leaving Biden in place or seek to engineer a situation where Biden leaves office before the election to make way for the successor, were that to be his Vice President.
Constitutionally, were Biden to also decide to resign as President before the end of his term, Vice President Kamala Harris would be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. If Harris were to also be chosen as the Democratic nominee, Republican pressure mounted on Biden to stand aside could be matched by senior Democrats, to allow Harris to run as an incumbent President. Undoubtedly the Republicans would exploit this as a crisis unfolding for the Democratic Party.
Democrats
Even in the days prior to Biden’s decision to withdraw, he and allies continued to stress that the incumbent President presented the best chance of defeating Trump. The reason for this, in their view, was primarily two-fold.
Firstly, because Biden is the only person from either of the main political parties to have successfully taken on Trump and won. Secondly, because despite concerns regarding Biden’s capability, polling still pointed to a close race between Biden and Trump, with the latter slightly ahead within the margin of error. This however was not enough to assuage concerns. For example, one problem for Biden with this argument, is that in parallel congressional races, Democrats in swing states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan outperform Biden, and their leads over Republican rivals are higher than the margin of error.
However, despite the internal Democratic Party wranglings and the pressure Biden faced, currently none of the touted successors, including early frontrunner Kamala Harris, are polling significantly better or indeed worse than Biden when pitted head-to-head with Trump. This suggests that nominating a Democratic presidential candidate is not in itself a straightforward game-changer for the Democrats and partly reflects why there has not been a settled view regarding the process for what should happen next. Indeed, the most likely scenarios are not without their drawbacks.
A scenario whereby Vice President Kamala Harris is put forward as an uncontested nominee is possible, and even probable given Biden’s endorsement and the initial momentum her campaign has built, but this is not without its challenges or risks. One of the key arguments allies of Harris will articulate, is that a truncated process preserves party unity, avoiding a potentially brutal open nomination process, which will take weeks to finalise, unfolding only months before voters go to the polls. Furthermore, Harris’ camp will argue persuasively, that she is the best person to preserve and defend the legacy of the Biden administration having been a key part of it and the natural successor as Vice President.
Whilst this scenario is gaining in ascendency, it does have its sceptics, such as 24 former Democrat lawmakers who co-signed an open letter calling for a wider contest. Doubters of Harris’ ability to beat Trump point to her struggling personal approval ratings and that her head-to-head polling versus Trump is comparable to Biden’s.
Candidates such as California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, Senator Joe Manchin, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Michelle Obama have been touted as potential alternatives to face-off at a possible open convention. However, some of these names have already chosen to rally behind Harris with a possible eye on the race to be the running mate, and any decision for those mulling entering the race to be the Democratic nominee for President will need to be made quickly should they wish to run.
But equally, Democrats continuing to face inwards, with prospective candidates fighting for the nomination at an open convention, risks a brutal episode which can only be a good thing for former President Trump, particularly this close to the November election. Crucially, it remains to be seen as to what would happen to the existing multi-million-dollar election war-chest amassed by the Biden campaign, presenting a significant logistical challenge in the event of an open convention.
It is also important to note that whilst the list of those wanting Biden to stand aside was ever growing and included the likes of George Clooney and serving Democratic congressional politicians, not all Democrats were supportive of this. Notably, those who warned about the dangers of Biden’s withdrawal included unlikely high-profile Democrats such as Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The former has urged Democrats to “learn a lesson from the progressive and centrist forces in France who, despite profound political differences, came together this week to soundly defeat rightwing extremism.”
Continued uncertainty, chaos and a divided Democratic Party will undoubtedly make it harder to turn a turbulent political situation into a win. Reconciling the three corners of the triangle of those who were cautious about Biden standing down, Harris’ supporters, and influential Democrats who do not want Biden or Harris, starts with the need for leadership in establishing a strategy that outlines ‘what this will achieve?’, the ‘what comes next?’ and ‘how and will this help secure an election victory?’
