A Party failing to come to terms with seismic electoral defeat, a conference hall only half full for the keynote leader’s speech, and a conference stage taken up with quixotic delegates from both extreme ends of the party’s factional spectrum. No – this is not a lookback at Corbyn’s Labour conferences in years gone by, but an accurate description of this weekend’s SNP conference in Edinburgh.
After 17 years in government, three First Ministers in 18 months and an MP group failing to hit double digits, this conference was never going to be a particularly cheering one for the SNP. As First Minister John Swinney prepares himself for another new Scottish parliamentary term, here are three factors that will be front and centre of his mind.
1. Discipline, discipline, discipline
Whether you’ve agreed or not with their policy positions and priorities over the last two decades, few can deny that SNP leadership has traditionally been able to – almost without exception – keep their MSPs, MPs, and wider membership toeing the party line. This is of course easier to do when you’re riding high in the polls, and the prospect of achieving Scottish independence – the movement’s raison d’être – is “within reaching distance”.
With little incentive to behave, senior Party members have naturally chosen to do otherwise. Earlier this year veteran MSP Fergus Ewing was suspended from the SNP for voting in favour of a no-confidence vote; Former Cabinet Secretary Alex Neil called for John Swinney to resign following the General Election; MSP John Mason had the whip removed over comments he made regarding the war in Gaza; and current Cabinet Secretary for External Affairs Angus Robertson was forced to make a public apology for meeting with Israel’s Deputy Ambassador to the UK.
And this is all before the 30-odd disgruntled ex-MPs – including the likes of Joanna Cherry and Ian Blackford – decide whether it’s worth running as MSPs themselves at the next Holyrood election. After such a terrible defeat a party leader should be focussed on winning back the electorate, but instead he may need to focus on not losing control of his party.
2. The fiscal blame-game
The Prime Minister and his Chancellor have spent the summer ‘rolling the pitch’ on the fiscal challenges and the situation in Scotland is no different. Swinney and his team are now working out exactly how they can spin this one.
Today we will see Scotland’s Finance Secretary Shona Robison announce more than half a billion pounds of cuts to Scottish public services. From free school meals to adverse weather protections and support for the arts, there seems to be very few areas of public life not under threat from fund reallocation. And as support for the SNP continues to decline, so too has the public become less willing to accept that Scotland’s financial problems are down to the caricatured evils of Westminster. The Scottish Fiscal Commission – the official independent economic forecaster – has said that the Scottish Government’s own decisions are to blame for “much of the pressure” on Scotland’s finances. In the months ahead, Swinney will be forced to not only make some tough spending decisions – but to finally accept responsibility for them too. And now shorn of a transformative communicator, the SNP are likely to attract much of the opprobrium.
3. Operation 2026
Having increased their Scottish MP group from 1 in 2019 to 37 in July this year, Labour have their sights set on victory at the 2026 Holyrood elections. The Scottish Labour Party is currently not even the official opposition in Edinburgh, sitting in third place behind the Scottish Conservatives. Scottish Labour would need to come from third to first for Anas Sarwar to become First Minister. This, combined with the proportional representation system that Holyrood is based on, will mean Swinney’s team will be working out exactly where, how, and from whom they need to cling onto for support.
During a private session at the weekend’s conference – the discussion has since been leaked – the First Minister told party members that voters seem to be abandoning the SNP once they earn over £20,000 and for the SNP to have a chance at success, they need to win back the support of Scotland’s middle class. This may give some indication of the political messaging and policy positioning for the government in the months ahead. However, while any Scot earning over £28,000 continues to be taxed more by Holyrood than their English co-workers, it will be interesting to see exactly how the government aim to win back this crucial voter base.
And lastly, at a time of such unrelenting political change and upheaval, the one constant we can rely on is Scottish independence polling. As we approach the tenth anniversary of the referendum, data for those for and against Scotland being an independent country has been stubbornly unmoveable – and this, if nothing else, will bring a sliver of comfort to Swinney in the months ahead.
