In the volatile landscape of British politics, Reform UK is threatening the century-long dominance of the two main political parties. Born from the ashes of the Brexit Party, Reform has morphed from a single-issue insurgency into noisy and attention-grabbing political force intent on edging out the Conservatives as the primary opposition to the Labour Government.
Armed with populist policies and a knack for making headlines, Reform is reshaping the opposition dynamic. Whether you view them as the antidote to the political establishment or a new breed of right-wing populism, they are likely to have a huge influence in the coming years. Reform’s rise in polling has continued steadily since last year’s general election to the point where a recent survey placed the party slightly ahead of both Labour and the Conservative. Their strategy? A focus on emotive issues like immigration, opposition to net zero targets, and combating the so-called “woke agenda”. These themes resonate with a significant segment of the electorate, particularly those disillusioned with the perceived failures of both mainstream parties.
Westminster speculation has the possibility of a Reform-Conservative electoral pact on the cards, while Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch insists such a pact is “for the birds”. Yet some prominent Conservative voices, including former Cabinet ministers Jacob Rees-Mogg and Esther McVey, have spoken in favour of an alliance between the two parties. Farage has his sights set on a demolition in the May local elections, promising to host the “biggest ever” launch rally in the UK. If successful in his efforts, it could encourage more conservative supporters of an alliance to speak out.
Many in Labour ranks are already working on the assumption that their main opponents at the next election will run on a right-wing populist manifesto – either Reform, the Conservatives or a combination of both. This expectation was reinforced by the findings of an Opinium poll released earlier this month indicating that 27% of potential Reform voters are actually put off by the party’s leader Nigel Farage. This has encouraged Labour strategists to concentrate on addressing populist policies rather than the personalities or parties espousing them.
The Liberal Democrats are taking a similar approach to Labour, targeting populism in general rather than aiming their fire primarily at Reform or the Conservatives. Lib Dem strategists calculate that a broad anti-populist coalition aiming to bring some moderate Conservatives supporters and soft labour voters into an anti-populist coalition to defeat both Conservative and Reform candidates.
Farage’s leadership brings visibility and cut through to his party, but his polarising personality remains a double-edged sword. While he has rallied a fervent base of supporters, he alienates many moderate voters. Reform’s challenge is to strike a balance that leverages Farage’s influence while broadening its appeal. Farage’s recent opposition to inviting the far-Right activist known as Tommy Robinson into Reform ranks, which drew the ire of tech billionaire Elon Musk, is an indication that he recognises a need to appeal to more moderate voters. Reform are looking to expand their appeal through non-stop campaign events including recent stops in Wiltshire, Durham, Essex, and Esher in 2025 alone. Overall, the party are all-in on Farage’s leadership despite divided public opinion, choosing to have Farage spearhead the 2026 Holyrood elections rather than elect a Scottish leader for the party.
The current political climate offers both potential and pitfalls for the Reform. Its uncompromising stance on immigration and critique of the government resonate strongly with disillusioned voters who seek an alternative to mainstream politics. Reform’s challenge to the net-zero consensus is gaining significant traction in the media. Farage and his acolytes will be hoping that potential energy bill increases will raise the political salience of this issue.
Reform are enjoying their position in a populist sweet spot, capitalising on the big political issues of the day without needing to provide detailed policy solutions. Whether the party leadership feels compelled to draw up a detailed policy programme nearer the election remains to be seen. It will be instructive to see how the party attempts to reconcile Farage’s Thatcherite instincts with a political base that includes many voters suspicious of free-market ideology.
Reform UK undeniably has momentum. Its continuing rise in opinion polls is dominating the political strategy discussions in both Labour and the Conservatives. Reform’s ability to tap into anti-establishment sentiment, and focus on emotive issues, suggests the party will continue to resonate with a disillusioned electorate. Yet, the challenges they face from Labour’s strategic manoeuvres to the complexities surrounding Farage’s leadership, require careful navigation. Reform’s attempt to widen its support while retaining its base will be key to whether the party is a formidable force heading into the next General Election.
