This year’s Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham was the Party’s first annual gathering in a decade and a half where they are not the party of government. It also served as the stage for the four Conservative leadership hopefuls to make their final pitches and vie for support from the Tory grassroots.
This Conference was arguably more important to Kemi Badenoch than any other candidate. Coming into Conference in second place in terms of MP support, but with a feeling that she may be close to reaching her ceiling, the impetus was on Badenoch to demonstrate to MPs that there would be a backlash from members if there was a perceived ‘stitch-up’ by One Nation MPs to keep her off the ballot.
The main Conference hall was arguably flatter for Badenoch’s Q&A session than it was for any of the other three candidates, with esoteric answers to questions on immigration and assisted dying somewhat losing the audience – with the other three candidates delivering more assured, polished answers. Contrastingly, Badenoch’s speech on Wednesday was full of crowd-pleasing moments – highlighting how much more comfortable she is delivering a set-piece pitch to thinking on her feet.
This was exemplified by Badenoch spending half of Conference explaining her media comments on maternity pay, which was a major unforced error and will have done little to allay the concerns of those wavering MPs who worry a Badenoch-led Party would find itself bogged down in endless culture-war battles and pointless controversy.
Robert Jenrick – the contest front runner – also had a gaffe of sorts. His claim in a campaign video about special forces killing rather than arresting terrorists due to the ECHR was seized upon by the other candidates, who described the claim as unsubstantiated.
More generally, almost all hostile jibes made by candidates throughout Conference were directed at Jenrick. He will be feeling somewhat bruised as a result but does appear to have stolen a march on Badenoch to be the candidate of choice for the Right of the Party, striking a confident figure on stage. However, despite his undeniable popularity among members, there were persistent mutterings about just how authentic Jenrick’s new positions are, having for many years been perceived as staunchly on the One Nation, moderate wing of the Party.
Tom Tugendhat certainly won the Conference merch-war, with more Tugendhat lanyards, Tugend-totes and Tugend-hats emblazoned on members than the merch of seemingly all the other candidates combined. While that seems trivial, it does create a perception of momentum and certainly many Conference attendees remarked at their surprise at Tugendhat’s apparent level of support.
But it was arguably James Cleverly who stole the show. He was the only candidate to prompt a spontaneous standing ovation in the Conference hall during his Q&A, evidently drawing on his experience as Party Chairman to strike a chord with the grassroots. His speech on Wednesday morning also galvanised the hall more than any other candidate, drawing the most rapturous applause of Conference when emphasising the need for the Party to be in the business of the future, not the past. Evidently members and Cleverly agree that the emphasis should be on ‘Rebuild’ rather than ‘Review’.
So it will be the two underdogs – Tugendhat and Cleverly – who will be leaving Birmingham happiest. They performed well and gave the impression of having more energetic campaigns than the two perceived member favourites in Badenoch and Jenrick.
Nevertheless, the fact remains that it is highly unlikely there will be room for both Tugendhat and Cleverly when MPs vote to whittle the number of candidates down to two next week. But if either can make it through to the member vote, this Conference will have given them hope that they have more than an outsider’s chance.
