The Conservatives had braced for a poor set of results at last week’s local elections. But the party’s showing was worse than even the most pessimistic predictions, with over 650 council seats lost.
The last time the Conservatives appeared to face an existential crisis, following the 2019 European Elections that saw them receive a dismal 9% share of the vote, they quickly ousted their leader and installed Boris Johnson. Just a few months later, he delivered the largest Conservative majority since Margaret Thatcher’s triumph in 1983.
Facing another existential threat posed by a Nigel Farage-led party on the Right, will the Conservatives again turn to Boris?
There are several practical and political obstacles which would suggest that the route to a comeback for the former prime minister is narrow.
Johnson had two key assets in 2019 that he now lacks: a parliamentary seat and a power base in the Conservative parliamentary party.
To become party leader, he would first need to find a route back to Parliament through victory in a by-election, no easy feat on current trends. There are few seats where Johnson could feel confident in overcoming the dual challenges of an insurgent Reform and the inevitable ‘anti-Boris’ tactical voting coalition. Any attempted comeback would be a political gamble.
While predominantly relying on transactional loyalty from Conservative MPs, Johnson did retain a core group of allies throughout his time in Parliament. They helped to engineer his successful leadership bid in 2019, including popularising the notion of Johnson as the saviour of Conservative fortunes during the bleak months in the run up to Theresa May’s downfall. Nigel Adams, Conor Burns, Andrew Stephenson, James Duddridge, Jake Berry and Ben Wallace were Johnson’s closest and most loyal parliamentary allies. All have now left Parliament.
It should be noted that Johnson considered a leadership bid following Liz Truss’ resignation in 2022 but abandoned his nascent campaign after failing to attract sufficient support. That campaign was in a Parliament where he had a core group of allies and residual loyalty from many 2019-intake Conservative MPs who felt they owed their political careers to him.
Given his lack of a power base in the current Tory parliamentary party, it is difficult to see who would advocate for Johnson’s return and who would try to convince MPs to coalesce around him, as occurred so effectively following Mrs May’s resignation.
The existing crop of Tory MPs are also thought to be largely sceptical about Johnson’s remaining electoral appeal. This is not 2019 and the former Prime Minister has accrued significant political baggage in the years since.
MPs can well remember Johnson’s scandal-ridden tenure, culminating in the ‘Partygate’ saga. Some have policy concerns too, with Johnson’s record in office seen by many Tory MPs and strategists as a liability. With even some Labour MPs now adopting the term ‘Boriswave’ that originated among Right-wing online commentators to describe the sharp rise in net migration under his leadership, Johnson’s record would clearly come under scrutiny. Many will question how credible it is to suggest he could see off the threat posed by Farage and Reform UK.
Despite these practical and political obstacles, Johnson’s return cannot be ruled out entirely. He retains the support of a significant section of Conservative members, who continue to pinpoint his removal as prime minister as the start of the Conservative downfall. He has undeniable star power and an ability to shape the national debate, something Kemi Badenoch has struggled to do. A recent poll showing Johnson as the only Conservative able to defeat Farage will not have gone unnoticed. And we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg of Tory panic, with another huge set of elections taking place across the UK next May.
While Johnson’s return is not currently being seriously considered at Westminster, if the Conservatives continue to decline and plans A, B and C fail, the Boris card may feel like the last one they can play.
The route to a political comeback for Johnson is narrow and filled with obstacles. But while the Tories remain in crisis, speculation about his return will persist. For now, Tory MPs do not view Johnson’s return as a good option. The question is whether it will become the only option they have.
