Who’ll be the next defector? That seems to be the question on the mind of most Conservative MPs and grassroots members in these first weeks of 2026. Disgruntled Conservative councillors switching to Reform UK has become an almost routine weekly occurrence, and the defection of the party’s former MPs and Ministers rarely makes the top of news bulletins now. Yet Robert Jenrick’s sacking from the Conservative frontbenchand party and his subsequent enlistment in Reform ranks have ripped open a new phase in the war for dominance on the Right.
Jenrick’s move was followed by Romford’s Conservative MP Andrew Rosindell joining Reform. Rumours circulated that at least five more Conservative MPs could defect to Reform ahead of May, the deadline Reform leader Nigel Farage has set for Conservative defections to his party. This week, former home secretary Suella Braverman made the switch too.
The Conservatives are facing the prospect of being displaced as the dominant party on the Right. How Kemi Badenoch steers her party through the challenging months ahead is vital not only to her own survival as Leader of the Opposition, but also to the future of what has long been the most successful political party in British history.
May’s elections are seen by many at Westminster as a moment of maximum danger for the Prime Minister, but perhaps an even greater threat looms for the Conservatives. Current polling suggests they will struggle to defend and win council seats in Wales, Scotland and large parts of England, with Reform looking on course to be the beneficiary of those losses.
The Conservatives are at risk of being consigned to the political periphery in swathes of the country, with its activist base already much depleted over recent years and continuing to decline. Some on the moderate ‘one nation’ wing of the party, notably Baroness Ruth Davidson and Sir Andy Street, see a return to David Cameron-style politics as the answer. The team around Badenoch and many in the remaining Parliamentary party are not of this view.
Badenoch’s most realistic achievement for 2026 is therefore not presenting the Conservatives as a realistic government-in-waiting, but rather retaining her party’s relevance and to try to hold back the rise of Reform.
To achieve this, she must build on her improved Commons performances and Opposition operation, which have put the Government on the back foot and scored political wins over recent months. Badenoch will need to show her backbenchers that it is her and her Shadow Cabinet that is leading the charge against the government. In the face of Reform’s growing ranks and widely expected electoral breakthrough moment in May, that will be no easy feat.
For the public affairs landscape, the immediate implication is a more fractured and volatile opposition, with the Conservatives focused less on developing a future programme for government, and more on managing their immediate survival. At the same time, the rise of Reform UK is recasting the terms of political debate and unsettling long‑established loyalties on both sides of the House. Those organisations with cross-party engagement strategies that are agile, locally-attuned and alert to how power on the Right is realigning will reap the reward in the weeks and months ahead.
