Fact versus Fiction: How AI and Disinformation has shaped the 2024 US Presidential Race

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What Donald Trump described as a “day of love” marked one of the darkest moments in American history. The violence and destruction of January 6, 2021 stands as a stark reminder of the fragility of democracy when disinformation is used to disrupt electoral integrity. 

The role technology played in the Capitol riots has competing narratives. On the one hand, technology played a crucial role in disseminating disinformation. It promoted sensational claims of election fraud through elusive algorithms and gave a voice to baseless conspiracy theories that incited anger and mobilised supporters. On the other hand, that same technology empowered authorities to rapidly sift through millions of images, videos and messages to identify and apprehend the hundreds of individuals who stormed the Capitol. 

Four years on, the technological landscape has evolved. Artificial Intelligence tools have become more advanced, and the stakes are much higher. Deepfakes and generative AI are not just spreading information; they are quickly and easily generating new and fake content.

‘Taylor wants you to vote for Donald Trump’

The most notable example of how AI can be used as a tool for deception was when Donald Trump embraced a slew of AI-generated images falsely depicting Taylor Swift and her fans endorsing his campaign for president. The images prompted the popstar to a quick public response, using the opportunity to endorse Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Trump then upped the ante ahead of the first day of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago by posting an image of the vice president speaking to a packed crowd of communists in front of a hammer and sickle, the symbol of the Soviet Union. Needless to say, the image was fake news.

But it’s not just political campaigns using these tools to their advantage. Earlier this month, reports revealed that the Pentagon was exploring the use of AI-generated personas that are indistinguishable from real people to infiltrate online chat forums and gather information. It is a risky strategy that some critics warn could exacerbate the disinformation crisis and erode trust in the electoral process.  

Furthermore, intelligence officials declared that Russia, Iran and China have been using AI to create content designed to deceive Americans ahead of polling day. While it is not yet a revolutionary tool, officials claim that AI is boosting the efforts of foreign adversaries to influence the election outcome. Planting the seed of chaos and disorder. 

Concerns surrounding AI are not limited to its undue influence on perceptions of the race; they extend to its potential to obstruct democracy altogether. 

Donald Trump has not only continued to deny that he lost fairly to President Joe Biden in 2020 but has since laid the groundwork to question the legitimacy of this election if he suffers the same fate. By manipulating the very same technology he used to allege the Vice President and her supporters are communists, he falsely accused his Democratic rival of using AI to over-inflate her crowd size at a rally at Detroit Metro Airport in August. In doing so, he has entrenched among his Maga supporters a frightening narrative of voter fraud and a ‘stolen election’ that could disrupt democracy at an even greater scale than the January 6 Insurrection. 

When the polls close, the real test begins

While deepfakes and fake news sites have been shared across social media throughout much of the election campaign, their impact has been limited and largely anticipated by both electors and the authorities.  

However, this campaign has provided a real glimpse into the risks if political and malign actors are given unchecked freedom to leverage AI tools. As AI continues to evolve and new technology emerges, these risks are expected to grow and have the potential to cause significant risk to democratic freedoms for future elections 

How AI is used – and countered – post-election may be just as crucial, especially in what is expected to be a close and contested election. A scenario in which neither candidate secures a majority in the Electoral College, coupled with delays in vote counting and potential recounts, could create opportunities for disinformation to exploit and mislead voters.

As we edge closer to the 5 November, the question is not just who will win, but how far technology will go in shaping our perception of the victory. 

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