The 2025 local elections are just around the corner, and they promise to be a significant event in the UK’s political calendar. On 1 May 2025, elections will be held in 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, the City of Doncaster and the Isles of Scilly, while six mayoral offices and the City of London Corporation will also go to the polls. A full list of elections taking place can be found here.
Since the General Election last July, Labour’s position in the polls has steadily slipped. Having received 33.7% of the vote in the election, Labour is now polling at just 25% according to YouGov. Labour’s downward trend in the polls appears to have eased over
recent weeks, and party strategists will be hoping that announcements like the increased spending on defence, the oft repeated determination to grow the economy, and an improvement of the Downing Street communications operation in the eyes of many commentators will reverse the trend.
One reason for Labour strategists to be hopeful is that most positions up for election in May were last elected in 2021. This was before the scandal about partying in Downing Street during the covid pandemic erupted and also before Liz Truss’s 49-day premiership, and at a time when the covid vaccine rollout boosted Conservative support. The 2021 local election results saw the Conservatives lead Labour by 7% in terms of equivalent national vote share. This year, the Conservatives are defending 16 of the 17 councils with a single-party majority, meaning in theory they have far more to lose than Labour. Any swings in Norfolk, Essex and Surrey to Reform would be a major blow to Conservative hopes of recovery.
Labour’s long-term plans for turning the polls around remain focused on delivery: by putting more money in people’s pockets, the party hopes that by the next general election – likely to take place in 2029 – the electorate will see the tangible effects of the government’s policies. Labour’s election strategists have become increasingly willing to take the fight to Reform as concern rises that a populist right could be their biggest challenge at the next general election. Recent weeks have seen an increased focus on border security, with footage of deportations released by the government, in a bid to show the electorate that Labour can be tough on immigration.
Rumours abound across Westminster that Starmer is plotting a reshuffle between the local elections and the conclusion of the Spending Review in June. The threat of a reshuffle has the benefits of keeping existing ministers working to the No10 tune and of backbenchers remaining loyal in the hope of future promotion.
Whether the results are good for Labour and the Prime Minister feels emboldened to reshape his Government, or poor for Labour and he feels the need to reshape and reset his Government, or indeed he feels happy to just carry on with the current ministerial line-up, we will know relatively shortly. Media outlets and commentators will speculate on likely candidates for promotion and demotion, but only Starmer and his closest advisers will know the timing and scale of any reshuffle.
The Conservatives meanwhile will be hoping that the local elections do not disrupt the party’s hoped-for stabilisation following a challenging leadership campaign and a rocky start to Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. Her tenure as Conservative leader remains far from certain. Tory MPs will be wary of the implications of electing their fifth leader in three years, but recent history has at the same time shown that when times are tough for a Conservative leader, rebellion is never far away. While conventional Westminster wisdom is that Badenoch will be given until the 2026 local elections to turn the party around, if the party performs below even pessimistic expectations in 2025, this might force a vote of no confidence, particularly with Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick, runner up in the last party leadership race, waiting in the wings.
At the same time, Reform UK is seeking to professionalise its election-fighting machine and outperform its rivals. Reform’s leadership will want to use the extra time caused by the postponement of elections in some counties announced as part of the government’s local authority restructuring to source and vet local candidates – an issue they have struggled with in the past – and continue building on their internal party structure both in their national party and its local branches.
A good showing in these elections would reinforce the feeling within Reform ranks that the party is on the march. Reform currently only has 72 councillors, but as that number grows, the infrastructure and organisation of the party is expected to grow with it. The party’s leadership will be hoping that strong results beyond their current strongholds demonstrate the polls are more than just noise and give them momentum going into next year’s Scottish and Welsh parliamentary elections.
The local polls are the first big electoral test for the parties since last year’s general election. The results will set the tone across Westminster, in at least the short term.
