Reshuffle speculation has once again captured the imagination of the Westminster bubble. With a lull in the political news agenda around this week’s parliamentary recesses, media commentators and Labour insiders alike are asking whether Sir Keir Starmer is soon set to shake up his frontbench and pondering who is in line for promotion and who is likely to be sacked. Political journalists are providing varied answers, with some suggesting the reshuffle will come ahead of Parliament’s summer break while others suggest the Prime Minister will wait until autumn.
In truth, it is risky to declare with any certainty when a reshuffle might happen or who might be affected. Unforeseen political events, such as any fallout from the Government’s looming decisions on welfare policy always have a bearing on timings. Prime ministers keep reshuffle discussions within a tight circle of trusted confidantes. Only a small number, perhaps fewer than a handful, know what is planned. However, there are principles that will guide the first reshuffle of this Labour government.
Some strategists accept that excessive reshuffle speculation may lead to questioning of a leader’s strength and decisiveness or become a distraction. Yet the power of patronage is not a new phenomenon in politics. In limited doses, speculation about imminent personnel changes can help keep ministers and the parliamentary party focused on strategic priorities and central messaging. It dangles a carrot to work towards for those aspiring for a ministerial promotion and brandishes a stick to manage ministers who are viewed as not doing a good job or who are proving tricky behind the scenes. To that end, some reshuffle speculation may be encouraged from the centre of government.
Rumours, media briefings, counter briefings and jostling for jobs are accepted as an inevitable part of political life for those involved. Ministers, advisers and politicians talk to each other and to journalists about potential ministerial moves. Reshuffle speculation should also be considered in the context of politicians and their allies advancing or shaping a political or policy agenda, setting down a marker of future ambition or planting a seed with decision-makers as to where vacancies should be created to justify promotions.
The Prime Minister, regarded by those closest to him as strong-willed, thorough in thinking through big decisions, and probing of political counsel, will apply the same approach to decision-making to first government reshuffle. Those in Number 10 hope that the reshuffle will clearly answer the question: ‘Why are we doing this reshuffle now?’ Any movement of cabinet ministers or ministers will aim to improve government political presentation and delivery.
Starmer’s final shadow cabinet reshuffle before the last general election exemplified his approach. Hilary Benn and Liz Kendall, neither of whom were briefed about or talked up in the media beforehand, were unexpectedly promoted. Starmer is willing to ignore speculation and resist being bounced into making any decisions briefed by those out of the loop. The Prime Minister, who is known to dislike reshuffles and the accompanying self-promotion, resents the idea that politicians or allies believe that they can get the outcomes they want through media briefings.
Whilst some may be impatient for a reshuffle to take place, the Prime Minister is unlikely to be rushed into it. Whether a reshuffle takes place in the summer, autumn or even beyond, the Prime Minister and his inner circle will move at what he views as the optimum, low risk political moment. Starmer will also want to avoid stand offs like the one he went through with Angela Rayner after the Hartlepool by-election in 2021when he ended up promoting her after she resisted his attempt to downgrade her role.
In addition to sacking or demoting under-performing ministers and promoting talent, a reshuffle provides an opportunity to address criticism and perception issues. Since the Labour Government’s landslide victory, the political landscape has changed markedly. The challenges and dangers have evolved for the Government and therefore ministers will be realigned to portfolios to suit evolving needs.
Whilst some reshuffles are simply about clearing the decks and giving a jolt to a struggling party irrespective of whether talented people lose their jobs, Starmer’s next reshuffle is expected to balance Number 10’s desire to promote strong performers and allies with party management. Having too many disgruntled former ministers on the backbenches potentially creates longer-term leadership challenges.
