There’s a government reshuffle coming. What does the data tell us about when it will be? I’ve had a look at the trends over the past 45 years.
I remember reshuffle days. I was once offered two jobs in the same reshuffle by Tony Blair. I also once found that I was changing roles (upwardly) when I called my ministerial office from inside the Division Lobby to hear the person who had until then been my private secretary answer the phone greet me in the name of their new minister.
The truth is that no-one in government enjoys reshuffle day. It takes weeks of planning to get right. There are never enough posts to placate all those who believe they are the solution to a government’s problem. And no prime minister savours sacking members of their team. New ministerial teams take time to bond, spads are sacked, new ones are hired. All of this means that it can make sense to have fewer, but bigger, reshuffles.
Speculation about Keir Starmer’s first full-scale Cabinet reshuffle has been circulating at Westminster for months. Some commentators forecast that the Prime Minister would reshuffle his Cabinet in April; others suggested that the shake up might take place in June or July following anticipated ministerial resignations in the wake of the Commons vote on the Welfare Bill; a report in The Times recently predicted that the reshuffle will come in September to allow Starmer to “reassert his authority”.
While such speculation is often dismissed as Westminster gossip, reshuffles do have a significant impact on the way a government functions. The most effective new secretaries of state will shape a department’s direction and agenda almost immediately upon their appointment, others navigate imposter syndrome. Businesses and other stakeholders can find themselves forced to build new relationships with incoming ministers, in many cases starting from scratch.
Arden’s new analysis of data on the timing of past major reshuffles has identified some surprising trends. (For the purposes of the research we have defined ‘major reshuffles’ as those involving at least five Cabinet-level changes).
The Reshuffle Should Have Been Last Weekend – Statistically
Since Margaret Thatcher in 1979, prime ministers carried out their first major reshuffle an average of 407 days since coming to office. If his timing was exactly in line with that average, Starmer would have completed his first major reshuffle last weekend.
Yet there’s one very good reason it wasn’t last weekend. Our data also suggests Cabinet reshuffles rarely happen in August because so many of those to hired/fired are on holiday with their families, and less easy to contact, even for the fabled Downing Street switchboard.
Late July is the Kindest Time for a Reshuffle
Since Blair became prime minister in 1997, no major Cabinet reshuffle has taken place in August. The most common month for reshuffles over that time has been July. That is often the kindest time of year to let ministers down gently. After being fired, disappointed ministers don’t have to be in Westminster for long before the recess gets underway. They can lick their wounds away from the glare of media attention. Neither do those who are newly hired have to go to the Chamber to answer questions just hours into their new ministerial roles. Late July also gives these new ministers time during the summer recess to get to grips with their new portfolio before the party conference season.
Labour is the Spring Party, the Conservatives the Autumn
Our analysis of major reshuffles since 1997 also shows a divergence in reshuffle timing along party lines. Conservative Cabinet reshuffles most often took place in autumn or winter while Labour reshuffles were carried out in spring or summer.
Labour governments have also tended to have less frequent major reshuffles than Conservative-led administrations over the period covered by the data. While Labour prime ministers left an average of 567 days between reshuffles, the figure for Conservative premiers has been 441 days. Overall, the frequency of reshuffles has steadily increased since 1997, as this graph shows. The quixotic nature of personnel changes in the most recent Conservative governments partly explains this.
Starmer is likely to be aiming for a lower rate of ministerial churn than his immediate predecessors. Yet a key factor in the Prime Minister’s thinking about his first major reshuffle will be the extent to which he considers how much each individual minister is contributing.
As leader of the opposition, Starmer was ruthless in sacking shadow ministers. Many Labour insiders expect the Prime Minister to show the same ruthlessness when carrying out his first Cabinet reshuffle.
With MPs due back at Westminster in less than a fortnight, the reshuffle speculation can be expected to build again. Even within Downing Street, few will know for certain when Starmer plans to carry out his first reshuffle.
Don’t Look Back in Anger
If you, like me, have seen Oasis this summer part of you will have been in a reflective mood about the past. It’s the same with reshuffles where it often makes sense to bring back at least one of the most talented MPs that you previously dropped from your lineup. Some of those people can be high performing ministers the second time around, and it’s great for party discipline. And my only reflection for any minister who a PM calls twice on the same day to offer you two different ministerial jobs is to do what I did – call the Chief Whip to discuss which role I preferred – and luckily, she agreed.
