A new poll from Arden Strategies by JL Partners reveals the public think that Chancellor Rachel Reeves was right to introduce £40bn of tax rises, and shows that there is broad support for most of the measures in Labour’s “necessary” first Budget.
The public think that the government was left a bad inheritance: A majority think that the government is facing a challenge with the public finances (69% of people agree), with half (48%) saying that Labour was left a broken country by the last government. There is also agreement that Labour should be given time to get the economy growing again, with even Conservative 2024 voters agreeing. A majority of voters (53%) agree it will take two terms of any government to fix the country’s problems, including net agreement amongst Conservative 2024 voters.
There is also support for the principles of Rachel Reeves’ Budget. A majority of the public (54%) support increasing borrowing to invest in public services like the NHS, and a majority (52%) also back increasing borrowing for the same. There is also support for the actual measures taken. Voters are optimistic about the Budget’s impact on public services, with a plurality of voters thinking that it will have a positive impact on public services, and 2 in 3 Labour voters agreeing.
Every voter group supports Reeves’ decision to freeze fuel duty and put forward £22.6 billion for the NHS. There is net public support for nearly all key measures announced in the Budget, including freezing fuel duty (+73), £22.6bn for the NHS (+72) and introducing VAT on private school fees (+27). The only measure that did not get net public support was the increase to employers’ NICS.
While Labour voters support every significant Budget measure, Conservative voters are more split. 2024 Conservative voters support measures such as freezing fuel duty, £22.6 billion for the NHS, an end to non-dom tax status and introducing VAT on private school fees. The only measures announced that the Conservative voters oppose are an increase in capital gains tax and a rise in the rate of employers national insurance.
Key findings include:
- Raising taxes by £40 billion was necessary according to half of Brits (47%), only 36% said the tax rises were unnecessary.
- Half of Brits (47%) say the Budget will have a positive impact on public services – with only 27% saying negative. Labour, Liberal Democrat and Conservative 2024 voters all say that the Budget will have more of a positive than negative impact on public services.
- Every voter group supports Reeves’ decision to freeze fuel duty and put forward £22.6 billion for the NHS.
- Net public support for nearly all key measures announced in the Budget, including freezing fuel duty (+73), £22.6bn for the NHS (+72) and introducing VAT on private school fees (+27).
- The public is more likely to think that this Labour budget is better than the last Conservative Budget – with 1 in 3 (33%) saying better and 1 in 4 (24%) saying worse.
- 2 in 3 (63%) Brits say that some taxes had to go up to pay for the NHS and other public services.
- A majority of the public (54%) support increasing borrowing to invest in public services, like the NHS.
- A majority of the public also (52%) support increasing taxes to increase spending on public services, like the NHS.
- Conservative, Reform, Labour and Liberal Democrat 2024 voters support
increasing taxes to increase spending on public services like the NHS. - Voters think “necessary” is the best word to describe the budget.
- A majority (54%) of Brits say that the budget can be described as taking tough decisions.
- The public agrees that the government is facing a challenge with the public
finances (69% agree). - Half of the public say that the last government left a country that was broken (48%), and just under half (46%) say that the new government has been given the job of cleaning up after the mess the Conservatives made.
- If the government can improve public services such as social care and education, 2 in 3 say they would approve of Labour’s record, including a majority of Labour 2024 voters.
Jim Murphy, CEO of Arden Strategies said:
“The Budget sets a different direction for the country, with a more open approach about the need for more investment in the NHS and infrastructure. It is also a significant political moment; with Labour making the case for £40 billion in tax increases.
This poll suggests that the public are open to Labour’s argument that they face a tough inheritance. Labour strategists will be heartened to hear there appears to be public support for most of the significant measures in the Budget, including tax rises.
They will also be pleased that their 2024 electoral coalition supports most of their tax increases.
And while Conservative voters are strongly opposed to some of the business taxes, they appear to support a range of budget measures; including the end to non-dom status and introducing VAT on private school fees.”
Methodology
J.L. Partners polled a nationally representative sample of 2,002 GB voters. The sample was quota-ed and weighted to ensure representative data on gender, ethnicity, age, region, education, 2024 general election vote and political attention (British Election Study estimates). Data was then weighted back to nationally representative targets on the same variables. Fieldwork occurred on 30th to 31st October 2024. There is a 2.1% margin of error on headline figures.
More information is available at www.jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results
