Reform UK voters want to see government action to fix the NHS and curb the rising cost of living, a wide-ranging poll commissioned by Arden Strategies has found.
The survey of more than 1,000 voters, carried out by JL Partners, is the most wide-ranging examination yet of the policy issues that concern the voters who have flocked to Nigel Farage’s party as well as the factors likely to influence how they vote at the next general election.
Commissioned to inform the ongoing debate around the political landscape after a year of Labour government under Sir Keir Starmer, the poll aims to present a detailed breakdown of what drives the continued rise in support for populist insurgency ency beyond the widely discussed issue of immigration.
Key findings in the survey included:
- More than half of the former Labour voters quizzed in the survey who switched to Reform UK in 2024 said more NHS investment (58%) and tackling hospital waiting lists (52%) would make them more likely to return to Labour next time.
- Four out of ten (40%) of all Reform voters questioned would be less likely to support the party if it proposed to change the NHS to an insurance-based model.
- Three-quarters (75%) said Labour does not pay enough attention to the cost of living.
- Over half (57%) of Labour switchers were concerned that Reform could merge or strike a deal with the Conservative Party.
- Over half of voters who backed Reform in 2024 acknowledged there was a chance they will not vote for them in the future. Only 46% insisted they were “absolutely certain” to vote for the party at the next general election.
- Nearly three quarters of voters (74%) in the survey said the performance of Reform-controlled local councils would be important to their decision about who to vote for at the next general election.
Much of the current commentary around the UK’s volatile and fragmented political landscape characterises Reform voters as a solid electoral bloc that has already made up its mind up about an election that is still likely to be nearly four years away.
Our poll shows the reality is more complex, with many competing issues driving Reform’s rise. The single political question that underlies the myriad concerns highlighted is who can be trusted to deliver change. Many of the voters questioned in our survey have signalled that will keenly watch the performance of both the Government and Reform-run councils over the next four years before finally giving their answer to that question.
There is food for thought for politicians of all stripes in the survey’s findings.
Arden Strategies is a cross-party consultancy that provides our clients with insight on all sides of UK politics.
